unemployment tend to lag behind changes in the economy, rising unemployment rate (paragraph 4.1) does
does not necessarily mean
that the underlying economic situation is continuing
deteriorate.
to
Given the indications of some revival in manufacturing activity in
activity in the first quarter (paragraphs 5.1, 5.3 and 5.4), the underlying economic situation is already improving.
1.5
Employment in manufacturing and in building and
construction declined during 1982. Employment in the tertiary
services sectors, however, recorded increases (paragraphs 4.5
to 4.8). In the twelve months to December 1982, manufacturing
and construction wage rates declined in real terms. However, salaries in the tertiary services sectors, in terms of payroll
per person engaged, rose in real terms (paragraphs 4.10 to
4.12).
1.6
In the property sector, at the end of 1982 the
vacancy position for most types of property, apart from
residential, was high in relation to existing stock
(paragraphs 5.6 and 5.7). Prices and rentals of finished
property either declined further or stabilized in
in the first
quarter (paragraph 5.6). There are signs of some renewed
interest in the buying of property, particularly of small
residential flats.
Inflation and the monetary aggregates
1.7
As aggregate demand in the economy was not imposing
much pressure on aggregate supply and hence on the general price level, the rate of inflation in the first quarter of 1983 remained roughly the same as in the fourth quarter of 1982. The easing of inflation elsewhere in the world was
another contributory factor. But the weakness of the Hong
Kong dollar (paragraphs 3.10 and 3.11) had an unfavourable
influence.
2
/1.8 Monetary
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