TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 166

HOF0007/20

PP DOT

RR ECGD (CPD)

RR FCO (HKD) ·

GRS 200

UNCLASSIFIED

"PA

on HK 090/4

#ICK090/4.

Mr Hoare

[T+2 TO DA / OTTER

ECGD!

HKD"

(+3

TRED

WHOS

Urful. But the press

put emphasis in 3 (4)+(4)

Doola

FM BTC HONG KONG 20013OZ SEPT

TO PRIORITY DOT -

NO DISTRIBUTION

TELNO OTTER 202 OF 20 SEPTEMBER 1983 AND TO ROUTINE ECGD (CPD + FCO (HKD)

THIS TELESNAM WAS NOT

ADVANTER 090/4

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY NO

2 1 SEP 1983

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

PA

STRY

Taken

HONG KONG ECONOMY

1. THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, SHAR JOHN BREMRIDGE, PRESENTED HIS MID. YEAR REVIEW OF THE HONG KONG ECONOMY ON 16 SEPTEMBER. HE REPORTED

THAT AN EXPORT LED RECOVERY HAD LED HIM TO REVISE HMS FORECAST OF GDP GROWTH UPWARDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND A HALF AND 6 PER CENT, THIS IS AN #NCREASE FROM HIS FEBRUARY FORECAST OF 4 PER CENT AND MORE THAN TWICE 1982'S.2.4 PER CENT. HMS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE STEADY RUSE IN DOMESTIC AND RE-EXPORTS DURING THE FIRST SEX MONTHS OF 1983,: BOTH UP MN MONEY TERMS BY 14 PER CENT AND 12 PER CENT RESPECTIVELY.

2. BREMRIDGE ALSO REPORTED AN IMPROVEMENT NN THE VISIBLE TRADE GAP DESPITE A FALLING HONG KONG DOLLAR (WHICH REACHED HK DOLLARS 8.32 TO 1 US DOLLAR ON 19 SEPT). ON INFLATION HE NOTED THAT THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX HAD RISEN BY 9.3 PER CENT 4# THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS AND SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED HIS FEBRUARY FORECAST OF 9 PER CENT. HE PREDICT- ED THAT #NFLATION WOULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 11 PER CENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 1983.

3.

OTHER POINTS INCLUDED

(A) EXPORTS OF GOODS FOR 1983 EXPECTED TO GROW BY 11 PER CENT, N

REAL TERMS, UP FROM 5 PER CENT PREDICTED IN FREBRUARY.

(6) RE-EXPORTS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 9 PER CENT, UN REAL TERMS.

(C) CONSUMER SPENDING EXPECTED TO GROW BY 4 PER CENT.