TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 160

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expenditure On the gross

domestic

product in 1983 can De

increased, though all 16 not plain sailing. (Tables giving full details of this revised GDP forecast are appended to the printed version of this speech.)

18.

The substantial increase in retained imports of raw materials and semi-manufactures in recent months, coupled with the continued improvement in the order-boOK positions ot manufacturers, suggests that domestic export performance will

remain strong for the rest of the year. Consequently domestic exports are now forecast to grow by 11% in real terms in 1983, as compared with my budget forecast of 5%.. Because the growth rate of re-exports recovered less rapidly than expected in the First half, the forecast growth rate of re-exports in real

terms is adjusted downwards to 9% from the budget forecast of

12%. Thus total exports are forecast to grow by

forecast to grow by 10% in real terms, as compared with the budget forecast of 7%. The budget forecast growth rate of imports in real terms of 7% is revised

upwards to B.

19.

The negative effect of the depressed property and

stock markets on wealth, tne

unfavourable influence of the

Incomes and other tactors have

Nevertheless, statistics on

economic recession in 1982 on

constrained consumer spending.

retained imports of consumer goods suggest that consumer demand started to pick up in the second quarter of this year.

As the economy continues to improve, given no unforeseen external shocks I expect that private consumption expenditure may recover further. For 1983 as a whole the forecast growth

rate of private consumption expenditure in real terms is thus revised slightly from 3% to 4%,

20.

So tar, 80 good.

Moreover largely due to the

Works programme, the housing programme and the construction of the Island Line of the Mass

continuation of the public

*

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