TNAG-1262-FCO40-1602-MPs--letters-on-the-future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 43

PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

HOUSE OF COMMONS LONDON SWIA OAA

November 1st 1983

The Hon, Oswald Cheung, OBE, QC,

703 Prince's Building,

Hong Kong.

and 1

Thank you once again for your great kindness to Val and myself while we were in Hong Kong. I was once again enormously impressed by the skill and vigour witha which Hong Kong has responded to the challenges that it faces on every side, hope that the discussions that are now taking place about the future of the nów territories and Hong Kong after 1997 reach a satisfactory conclusion.

I must admit, lover, that I am not optimistic about the outcome of those talks. I have great confidence in the skill of Sir Percy Cradock, but the public position token up by the Leaders of the Teople's Republic seam wholly inaupotible with the continued existence of a free and prosperous Hong Kong. And even if a satin- factory agreement were to be reached by the Autumn of 1984, there can be no containty that those in power in Beijing in 1997 will actually wish to stick to the terms of an agreement reached now.

T

If there is no satisfactory agreement, I presume that a very large number of fort Rong residents would wish to leave. You are obviously far better infomed on this point the I am, but while I was in Hong Kong, the lowest estimate of the mile of prople who might want to leave, in the face of the threat of a de facto Communánt take-over, was 750,000, while a number of estimates ran wall over one million. have also henrd it suggested that perhaps 250,000 Hong Kong residents might well be able to find alternative homes abroad through their own initiative, and this could leave half a million or a million people who fear the prospect of living in a Commist dominated society, and who camot protect themselves.

It seems to me that the British Parliament should now consider the nature of the British responsibility for these people, and the way in which our moral obligation a my met. Nothing that has happened since the passage of the British National {ty

1- Acts makes it more likely that it will be possible for the United Kingdom to take a