r
病
蓮子蓉在鋁行找了激的
中氣足藏行
打手地大把,苦瓜乾通位女人抵入斯拉了出來
K NO
TO DA UK siz ve meki • Ni
們人十廿
Sober Analysis on Future of
of HongKong
(中譯見第一版)
需是
OR
OF
By Robert Adley, Chairman of the British-Chinese Parliamentary Group
For a British Member of Parliament, albeit the Chairman of the British-Chinese Parliamentary Group, to write an article for Ming Pao, may be unusual. It is certainly a great honour to be invited so to do, and I hope my views on the future of Hong Kong will not prove to be too controversial. Let me start by stating some guide lines.
1.
2.
4.
Britain recognises that she has a responsibility to try to achieve, for the people of Hong Kong, a future status which represents the wishes of the majority of the population.
There has to be a new status for Hong Kong from 1997: everyone knows this: the British Government have been discussing Hong Kong's future, with the Government of the Peoples Republic, for some years now. It is not a problem that has just been 'discovered'.
There are only two ways to settle Hong Kong's future: by talking or fighting! There is no way on earth that the latter option will be exercised!
The future status of Hong Kong depends utlimately on Bejing: not to recognise this, is to delude oneself:
From these guide-lines, we must draw further conclusions. ` Let me extract my conclusions from each of my four points, 1. The British Government will do everything in its power to meet the wishes of the people of Hong Kong. The 'colonial' status however, is an anachronism of history, not a mani- festation of present day territorial ambition.
2.
3.
4.
The timing of the new agreement is important: it is however more important to the people of Hong Kong than to the Government of China. China's perceived advantage in main- taining the distinctive social, political and economic status of Hong Kong, depends on her perception of her interests, rather than any desire in Beijing to facilitate and accommodate the wishes of Hong Kong's citizens. This point is some- times overlooked, but I am trying to be realistic, not fanciful. Those who expect the British Government, to negotiate Hong Kong's future relationship with China, from behind the bar- rel of a gun, are mad! If China wants Hong Kong next week, all she has to do is to remove her own border guards from the frontier. Thus the people of Hong Kong would be well advised to avoid insulting Beijing by constantly insinuating their hostility towards the Government and social system of the Peoples Republic. Constantly-expressed anguish about the future is, of course, implied criticism of Beijing, its government, and its social system. This is unlikely to endear the people of Hong Kong' to their future partners!
As I said in point 4 above, 'the future status of Hong Kong depends ultimately on Beijing'. Perhaps the people of Hong Kong would be wise to look at the situation, not through their own eyes, but through those of the Peoples Republic.
Let me now turn to the broader specturm of relations between Britain and China, and their implications for Hong Kong. Britain and China are good, and indeed close friends. We are discussing joint naval exercises between the Chinese Navy and the Royal Navy. Our views on many topics, coincide totally. We both believe that the policy of the U.S. Government in supplying - sophisticated arms to Taiwan, is mistaken, shortsighted and dangerous. Our views of the Soviet Union: our views on the Middle East position: and indeed our views on the need to find a sensible, practical, realistic solution to the Hong Kong problem, draw us ever closer together, Indeed, the PRC and the EEC countries share a global,
strategic view of many major issues.
Margaret Thatcher's visit to Beijing, therefore must be seen within the context of relations between not just Britain and China.
but between the EEC and China, indeed between the West and China, She is not going to China solely to discuss the future of Hong Kong. She is not going to China mainly to discuss Hong Kong. The subject will doubtless be disucssed, but expectations of 'instant', 'final', 'concrete' solutions emerging from her visit, are totally misconceived. Indeed, it could be construed as thoroughly mis- chievious to raise such expectations. Are there those in Hong Kong-beside the media!-deliberately raising the temperature?
My main fear, following my latest visit to Hong Kong, is an eruption of disappointment, frustration and anger if Mrs.. Thatcher's Beijing visit does not produce something to satisfy the people of Hong Kong. Yet it is clear that no such outcome is likely. With the best will in the world, who knows with certainty, in 1982, what the world will be like in 1997? How many businessmen here-those same people clamouring for that 'concrete solution'- will make cast-iron investment committments now, to be implement- ed fifteen years hence? The fact is that Hong Kong's future is as secure as Beijing judges it to be in her interest for Hong Kong's individualistic status to continue. 'The people of Hong Kong there-
fore should, in my view, be asking themselves what role they can play, in helping to achieve the maintenance of the status-quo, in a different guise, perhaps, but distinctive nevertheless from the PRC.
I do not think that Hong Kong's citizens are playing their hand as well as they might.
China needs Hong Kong. She needs it with a stable economy, and quiescent population. Yet the current wave of frenzy, mainfest- ed on the Stock Exchange or elsewhere, shows that people in Hong Kong are not applying their ususal acumen to the handling of the problem. Why not? My deductions may not be palatable, but please ponder them.
Hong Kong Chinese are not basically interested in 'Politics': they leave much of that to the stuffy British, who seem more interested in politics than in commerce! Thus the local population can and have concentrated on making money, at which they are outstandingly good. At the frenzied pace at which life is lived here, deals are done, contracts closed, agreements reached, at a speed which can leave one breathless. This is a feature of life here: nowhere in the world is unique, but Hong Kong comes quite close. Now, suddenly, Hong Kong's population has 'discovered' 1997! By their sudden fascination with the problem, they have, without realising it, become involved in 'Politics'. Naturally, they expect to be able to solve this 'deal' as fast as they cope with their normal deals! But life is not like that, and the 1997 problem is not just another 'deal' to be negotiated.
!
How strange, too, that Hong Kong's population seems to lose all their normal skills of negotiation, in the way they seek to tackle '1997'. If you are seeking to conclude an important contract, surely the last thing to do is to tell your negotiating partner, that he must sign-for your sake, not his! That attitude surely flies in the face of all the normal tactics and instinct of the negotiator!
December 31st 1996 will pecome January 1st 1997; life on earth hereabouts, will continue. Long before them, Britain, China and Hong Kong will have reached an agreement. Some compromise will be necessary all round. Your concern for the future is totally understandable. Don't panic: don't expect instant solutions: and finally, don't forget Beijing. If you want to live with a tiger, don't keep pulling his tail...........................
- 有問題,但這保險計,不得不去排
0
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.