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with any certainty when, but it could happen as soon as 1983
if the results of the Prime Minister's visit are not seen as
encouraging. In particular, sustained confidence is vital in
the planning of large-scale capital projects such as power
stations, a replacement airport and other facilities which
require a long lead time and an amortization period of
between 12 and 20 years.
19. An agreement should therefore be sought as soon
possible, but it does not necessarily follow that whatever
is agreed in principle must be put into practice forthwith.
Impracticable Options
20.
Against this background some of the more obvious
solutions are unlikely to be practicable.
They are:
a) sitting tight for as long as possible and refusing
to contemplate any concession on Chinese claims to
sovereignty until we were obliged to do so. This is
a high risk policy and is likely to end in a collapse
of confidence very soon;
b) the classic solution independence. The Chinese
would not accept this, as they believe that Hong
Kong is part of China and does not have a right
to self-determination and independence;
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/c)
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