TNAG-1259-FCO40-1599-The-Future-of-Hong-Kong---special-study-by-FCO--August-1982--1983 — Page 117

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are expected to grow. If claims arose on commitments

of this magnitude, they could wipe out ECGD's accumulated

reserves and threaten the viability of their whole

insurance function, with major consequences for the

Exchequer.

B.

13.

Possible Changes

Hong Kong's prosperity until now and, in particular,

the growth of manufacturing industry which employs the

bulk of the labour force, and the development of a

flourishing regional financial centre, have owed much to

feelings on the part both of the resident Chinese population

and of overseas business interests, that an internal

political regime conducive to the continued favourable

growth of business would prevail at least for the time taken

to recover the initial outlay on most investments.

many industrial investments can be paid off in short

periods concern has grown partly because the period of

Crown land leases in the New Territories is now less than

the customary 15-year mortgage. Between now and 1997, however,

uncertainty about the future status of the territory for

―

While

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so long as no clear-cut solution emerges or perceptions

about the implications of any agreement which may be reached

between HMG and the PRC are likely to have an increasing

impact on business sentiment and hence on new investment

and the disposition of capital already invested in Hong Kong

or generated from now onwards. While therefore there are

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/no