TNAG-1253-FCO40-1586-Third-countries-and-the-future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 57

نشان

CONFIDENTIAL

ulian Bullard KG

BRITISH EMBASSY,

PEKING.

21 July 19ごろ

EAST-WEST RELATIONS

1. Far Eastern Department have sent me. the Secretary of State of 1 July on this srbju obviously an important minute and I read it

rest.

7(v)) should

I am sorry that the passage devoted to China (D.. be so short and, I am afraid, potentially misleading.

2. The first statement in the passage is "China is potentially a serious factor in relations with the Soviet Union, but not yet". This is just not the case. China's relations with the Soviet Union are of immense importance to the West now. China's size and indestructability and her strained relations with the Soviet Union confer on the West great strategic benefits. China is a major worry and distraction to the Russians and ties down large Soviet forces. We have only to imagine our concern if China and the Soviet Union were to compose their differences and cooperate.

3.

Your explanation of the first statement is: "I say this because if the problem of Hong Kong can be solved there could be a prospect of our relations with China developing with dynamic speed". But this is to confuse the bilateral Sino-UK and the general Sino-Western relationship. The strategic benefits for the UK (and the West) deriving from China exist independently of the Hong Kong negotiations. The Hong Kong prospect is uncertain, but even in the worst case there will remain good politico-strategic arguments for avoiding a breakdown in Sino-British relations, for continuing to encourage China's links with Western Europe, which the Chinese are anxious to promote, and for doing what we can to avoid a deterioration in Sino-US relations. The same applies with added force for West European countries, who lack the Hong Kong complication in their relations with China.

4. Finally, the statement that "the Soviet Union matters much more to Britain, for good or ill, than China is likely to do this century". I entirely agree, but this is no ground for ignoring China's present importance in the world balance and particularly as a check on the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is our major external threat and likely to remain so. Hong Kong apart, China does not threaten us or Western Europe and, as explained above, provides strategic benefits. We need have no illusions about the

/Chinese

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