TNAG-1242-FCO40-1555-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 167

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

SECRET

2

A run on

in the banking and financial system itself. deposits could not be ruled out, with serious

implications for the stability of the deposit- taking institutions.

3.

The shift out of Hong Kong dollars could also be accompanied by panic selling of securities and panic buying of gold. It would also be accompanied

G

though lagged to some extent

Gen

by a

sharp rise in the rate of inflation.

Property sector

4.

(4)

As property is less easy to sell, the effect

of such a situation would be not so much panic

selling of property as a further sharp fall in the demand for and the prices of finished property and land. This would lead to -

//

(a)

a further fall in investment in

PRAKS JA GRADA TURMARKASSER DEN GANESE JERKUSENGER EAST CARRERA DE VENGA Emad van mediante APKAN BENE

(b)

property(5) and in building and construction activities(6), and

;

a series of company failures, and not just in the real estate

sector, as banks call in loans and advances held against property-based collateral.

Manufacturing sector

5.

There are already indications of export

earnings in foreign currencies not being

repatriated, or being repatriated but not converted back into Hong Kong dollars. Those indications

are a manifestation of a basic reluctance to invest

SECRET

/and

Comments

Approved members can add comments, bookmarks, and private notes.

No comments yet.

Private Research Note

Private notes are available after approval.