TNAG-1240-FCO40-1553-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 95

1.

CRS-22

If Beijing manages to reassert it sovereignty over Hong Kong without

disrupting the social and economic order there, it could add substantial

credibility to its claim that China's reunification with Taiwan would have

no negative effect on the way of life there and could thereby ease concerns

of some Americans about how U.S. interests in Taiwan would be affected by

reunification with the mainland. Of course, if Beijing is seen as mishandling

the situation in Hong Kong, leading to serious economic decline and social

disorder there, it would reduce, in the eyes of many Americans, the credi-

bility of PRC claims that Taiwan's reunification would not adversely affect

U.S. interests on the island. It could also prompt American business leaders

to be more cautious in ventures in the PRC.

Despite strong American interest in Hong Kong's future, however, current

circumstances appear to compel the United States Government to restrict

its involvement to the role of an interested bystander during the current

Chinese-British talks regarding Hong Kong's future. Neither London nor

Beijing has publicly indicated any interest in American support or involve-

ment, as both sides presumably judge that the discussions are complicated

enough without injecting outside forces into the equation.

One suggested option calls for the United States to intercede with

China privately in order to encourage a restrained PRC policy toward Hong

Kong that appears more likely to preserve the economic and social status

quo there. However, Beijing is judged to be less than receptive to such an

American demarche over an issue of Chinese sovereignty at a time when PRC

leaders see the United States repeatedly affronting Chinese sovereignty with

arms sales to Taiwan.