TNAG-1239-FCO40-1552-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 60

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Mr Donald

CONFIDENTIAL

Mr. Hoare Mr. Morais 1/8 ||

A rogful murway.

I believe the petentral

$24

Kirs gest) with If Blunt reading

Thank

you

for timble remains, with lots

I scope for eg. inter provincial

nivalry.

CHINA INTERNAL

1.

1/8

cc: Melift, HKD

Miss Neville-Jones,

Planning Staff

Mr Baxter, EAD/ODA Mr Walker, Research De Mr Hallett, ESID

Mr Brown, Info Dept Mr Crowley, PUSD DI4, MOD

OT4, DTI

Since this was written we have had reports of Lixannion being in

chaye D Hey key which is distinctly sold on 29/2

Sir P Cradock's letter to me of 11 July covered a long memorandum by Mr Ehrman on the Sixth National People's Congress.

2.

>

You may not have time to read the whole paper (in which case may I commend paragraphs 1, 2, 6, 37 and 38), but it is an impressive piece of work. Indeed, like all Mr Ehrman's reporting to the Department over the last few months, it amply justifies the Ambassador's insistence on having an able and experienced China hand as his First Secretary (internal) at this important time.

3. We agree generally with Mr Ehrman's and the Ambassador's conclusions. They are in line with Mr Thomson's minute of 24 June which drew on Peking's earlier reporting telegrams. I would add only the following observations:

a) the Presidency (para 29): Mr Ehrman sees the appointment of Li Xiannian as a sign that Deng Xiaoping and his group now feel confident enough to tolerate a broad church. We doubt this, and think that Deng would have preferred to put one of his own men in this job if he had felt strong enough to do so. Chinese cadres know that Deng and Li are not close; they are likely to read Li's appointment as another sign that the reformists' control is still not total. If prestige was the only requirement, Chen Yun would have been better qualified. Peng Zhen could have been a respectable alternative appointment (and his place at the head of the NPC Standing Committee could then have been filled by a younger man).

HKK040/1

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

·

Ú AUG 1983

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

PA

Ц

REGISTRY

Action Taken

CM12518

CONFIDENTIAL

/b)

See 1449

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