TNAG-1239-FCO40-1552-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 35

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Action Taken

FROM R D CLIFT, HKD FCO

FILE REFERENCE HKK 040/4 DATED 29 JULY 1983

FOLLOWING FOR SIR E YOUDE GCMG MBE, GOVERNOR, HONG KONG

COPIED TO SIR P CRADOCK GCMG, HMA, PEKING

FUTURE OF HONG KONG: VIEWS OF THE HONG KONG PEOPLE

1.

WHEN YOU WERE IN LONDON YOU MENTIONED THAT YOU WERE MULLING

OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF COMMISSIONING AN OPINION POLL ABOUT THE

FUTURE.

2.

THE RECENT PREPARATION OF MATERIAL FOR THE TALKS IN PEKING

TO COUNTER CHINESE STATEMENTS THAT THE HONG KONG PEOPLE SUPPORT

PEKING'S PLANS HAS PROMPTED PLANNING STAFF TO SUGGEST THAT

OPINION POLLS MIGHT BE LOOKED AT FURTHER. ONE POSSIBILITY NOW

MIGHT BE THAT IF THE POLL WERE ORGANISED FAIRLY QUICKLY IT MIGHT

BE READY BEFORE THE SEPTEMBER ROUND OF TALKS WITH THE CHINESE.

3.

SEVERAL UK OPINION RESEARCH GROUPS HAVE OVERSEAS SUBSIDIARIE

OR ASSOCIATES AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO UNDERTAKE SUCH A STUDY. THE

CHAIRMAN OF THE ORC (WHICH IS ONE CANDIDATE) IS AN ACQUAINTANCE OF

THE SECRETARY OF STATE. IN ADDITION PLANNING STAFF HAVE, AS YOU

KNOW,

HAD CONTACT WITH THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF GALLUP (WHICH IS

ANOTHER CANDIDATE) ON OTHER MATTERS. IT MIGHT BE THAT INFORMAL

APPROACHES (IN STRICTEST CONFIDENCE) COULD BE MADE TO EITHER

OF THESE ORGANISATIONS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION IF YOU THOUGHT IT

WAS WORTH PURSUING. I FULLY REALISE ALL THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED

WITH OPINION POLLS. ONE MAJOR DIFFICULTY WOULD BE CHINESE CHARGES

OF GOVERNMENT MANIPULATION. THESE COULD BE MUCH LESS SUSTAINABLE

IF THE INITIATIVE FOR THE POLL WAS LOCAL AND CAME FROM OUTSIDE

THE GOVERNMENT. MIGHT THAT BE POSSIBLE? I SHOULD BE GRATEFUL

FOR YOUR COMMENTS ON THIS POINT AND ALSO ON MORE GENERAL

CONSIDERATIONS.

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