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China. China is forced to accept it, or seem to favor colonialism, and can hardly subsequently hand it back to colonists.
The second group of situations consists of changes that may occur in China.
10.
The Legalists
A faction takes power in China that supports a strict legal inter- pretation and insists that the treaties be followed which means that the New Territories and most of the islands are handed back to China in 1997. It seems to be generally assumed in Hong Kong that it would not be viable without the New Territories and in such an event the whole of Hong Kong would and should revert. The assumption seems to be dubious, for the elements that have contributed to the clear economic success of Hong Kong have nothing to do with the New Territories, and the removal of this area would not subtract from the success elements. There would be a loss of capital and the fruits of the notable development in the New Territories in the last decade plus probably a movement of people down into Kowloon and Hong Kong Island which would add to problems of overcrowding and so on. Hong Kong has faced and survived situations in past of immense difficulty and doubtless could do so again, if the will to survive is not removed.
11. A New Gang of Four
II.
A radical faction seizes power in Beijing and reverts to ultra- left policies of the kind seen in the Cultural Revolution. This fac- tion puts ideological purity well ahead of short-term economic benefit in its priorities and anti-colonialism ranks ahead of eco- nomic gains from Hong Kong. The government could call upon strong nationalists/patriots as well as extreme left supporters. Hong Kong is taken as a result.
12. The Goaded Dragon
A moderate government in China is taunted bitterly by left-wing opponents in China that it is soft on colonialism, that it has left the true path of socialism, and that is no better than the earlier dis- credited Qing government that sold out China to foreign coloni- alists. The government responds by taking Hong Kong in order to demonstrate its authority, respectability and right to gove,
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