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obliged to intervene. These situations have been given rather fanci- ful titles in order to aid recall, as the sheer number of them may become confusing. They are grouped into four sections, changes in Hong Kong (1 to 9), changes in China (10 to 16), changes in the international socialist world (17 to 19) and changes in international non-socialist world (20 to 25).
I. The Rich Plum
The Hong Kong economy continues to develop rapidly and the leaders of China come to realize that there would be great ad- vantage in possessing such a rich, dynamic well-equipped and highly skilled area. They further assume that the economic devel- opment would continue satisfactorily after the take-over. Hong Kong is then taken.
2. The Striking Contrast
The Hong Kong economy develops rapidly as above. China puts much effort into developing South China, continuing the experi- ments which involve Guangdong and Fujian provinces having in- creased authority to promote their economy and developing special economic zones. However, South China lags badly as Hong Kong continues its development and the contrast becomes increasingly obvious. The leaders of China reach the conclusion that this con- trast it too marked and decide to remove the yardstick of Hong Kong, which is taken.
3. The Sour Lemon
The Hong Kong economy loses momentum and falters, declining either relatively and heavily compared to China, or absolutely. This could be the result of capital and skills fleeing Hong Kong, at first in a trickle and later in a flood, as 1997 gets nearer, or as some event in China occurs that frightens investors in Hong Kong and causes a sudden outflow of capital and skills. It becomes clear to the leaders of China that nothing they can do is likely to cause a reversal of the flow and the longer it continues the less desirable. will Hong Kong become. It pays to move quickly and take Hong Kong while it is still worth having.
4. A Third China
Hong Kong begins to look more like an independent country as the Hong Kong authorities start to allow more participation in
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