TNAG-1235-FCO40-1548-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 29

Mr Hoare

The condusmis seem rather out

of date now!

19 10/2

Mr CX

Mr Donald

Donald Ashop

ре

HKK 040/1

1 O FEB 1983

DESK OFFICER DXX

PA

125

AF"12

FUTURE OF HONG KONG ARTICLE IN THE ASIA PACIFIC JOURNAL, AUTUMN 1982

1.

This article is an edited version of a paper which Mr Bucknall produced for an Asian Studies Association of Australia Conference in May 1982 (we and other departments saw a copy of the earlier paper last September. It contained much more in the way of useful statistics on Hong Kong-China economic relations.)

2.

This article does not differ much from the earlier version. Mr Bucknall's 'options' (25 of them!) are listed on pages 116 to 121 and considered thereafter. This Section is worth reading.

3.

What Mr Bucknall sees as the three real possibilities (described on pages 124 to 127) are:

(a)

(b)

(c)

continuation of the status quo: if 1997 could come and go unnoticed;

China increasing its power over Hong Kong, or taking it over in part or whole: here he looks at several possibilities, including UN Trust Territory, a new lease, a split between the New Territories and the rest, joint- government of the whole, etc;

Hong Kong increasing its size by merging with part of Guangdong province.

/I think