TNAG-1229-FCO40-1542-Possible-visit-by-the-Secretary-of-State-for-Foreign-and-Com-1983 — Page 6

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9.

FED are submitting separately on the timing constraints for this tour.

10. The Governor of Hong Kong and HM Ambassador in Peking have been consulted on the possibility of visits to their posts. They agree with the Department's view that:

11.

(a)

(b)

(c)

so long as the present phase of negotiations on

the future of Hong Kong is continuing, a 'routine' visit to Peking should not be envisaged. A visit would inevitably be seen as connected with the negotiations, both by the Chinese and by public opinion in Hong Kong. Both would anticipate a new initiative;

a confidence-boosting visit to Hong Kong will be

necessary not later than June 1984. It might well be fitted in as part of the Far Eastern tour, provisionally planned for the Easter recess. But there could possibly be reasons connected with the talks why such a visit might turn out not to be advisable at that time. It would be important not to announce such a visit and then be forced to cancel it. A final decision should therefore be delayed for as long as possible;

developments in the talks might at any stage make it

necessary for the Secretary of State to travel to Peking and/or Hong Kong at much shorter notice.

Other possibilities for a Far Eastern tour are a stop-over visit to Pakistan to demonstrate our support over Afghanistan; and, depending on the Prime Minister's programme for 1984, Nepal, where the Gurkha connection gives substance to our relations, Malaysia and Singapore.

Middle East

12. A series of visits by the Secretary of State to the Middle East in 1984 would clearly be of value, both for familiarisation reasons and to demonstrate our commitment to an active policy in the region. The Queen's State Visit to Jordan at the end of March 1984 will give an excellent opportunity for the Secretary of State to visit Jordan. That visit will, however, be a fairly lengthy one, and it will be difficult to combine it with visits to other countries in the region, particularly while Parliament is sitting.

13. On the assumption that the Secretary of State will not have time for more than about three countries during the summer recess, the most important ports of call would be Tel Aviv and Damascus, as two key capitals in terms of the Arab/Israel dispute, and also Jedda, which is the leading Arab country in economic terms (our biggest trading partner in the Middle East), and with a special rôle to play in the Arab/Israel dispute. The other main possibility, Egypt, was recently visited by Mr Luce and a visit by the Prime Minister during 1984 is a possibility. It might be overdoing matters for the Secretary of State to visit Egypt in 1984, though he might do so in 1985.

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