TNAG-1182-FCO40-1484-Resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-into-the--1982 — Page 24

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4. AS FAR AS THE LIKELY OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS IS CONCERNED,

THE CLOSED CAMP POLICY MAY HAVE SOME DETERRENT EFFECT, BUT NOT,

I SUSPECT ALL THAT MUCH. (I HAD THOUGHT OF SUGGESTING A PHOTO-

DISPLAY FOR OUR EMBASSY INFORMATION BOARD, WHICH IS A PRIME SOURCE

OF LOCAL INTEREST, BUT I SUSPECT THAT YOUR CLOSED CAMPS WOULD LOOK SO MUCH LIKE VACATION RESORTS TO THE INHABITANTS OF HANOI THAT IT

MIGHT HAVE QUITE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT TO THAT INTENDED). THE

PRESENT TREND SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE, SUBJECT TO THE USUAL SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS. WHAT I FIND SO DISCOURAGING IS THAT, ALTHOUGH VIETNAM HAS SINCE 1975 EFFECTIVELY LOST TWO THIRDS OF ITS FISHING FLEET (AS A RESULT, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF FISH

IS DOWN FROM 18 KG TO 10 KG ANNUALLY AND SUPPLIES OF NUOC MAM, THE TRADITIONAL SOURCE OF PROTEIN THROUGHOUT VIETNAM, ARE DECLINING ALL THE TIME), ALTHOUGH THE AUTHORITIES ARE TAKING MUCH TOUGHER MEASURES TO PREVENT ILLEGAL DEPARTURES, ALTHOUGH THE POPULATION ARE AWARE OF THE ROUGH RECEPTION WHICH THEY ARE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER ON ARRIVAL IN MOST S.E. ASIAN COUNTRIES, QUITE APART FROM THE DANGERS FROM DROWNING AND PIRATES, AND ALTHOUGH THE FOOD SITUATION HAS IMPROVED EVER SO SLIGHTLY WITH A RECORD CROP OF 15 MILLION TONNES IN 1981 LND, WITH LUCK, 16 MILLION TONNES IN 1982 - DESPITE ALL THIS, THE BOAT PEOPLE STILL KEEP LEAVING. AS THE REGIME IN HANOI HAS LITTLE TO OFFER EXCEPT STRICTER DISCIPLINE AND INDOCTRINATION, FURTHER COLLECTIVISATION IN THE SOUTH AND CONTINUING CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA, IT IS PERHAPS NOT ALL SURPRISING THAT, BY HOOK OR BY CROOK, CONSIDERABLE NUMBERS OF VIETNAMESE STILL FIND THE WILL AND THE MEANS TO ESCAPE. I SEE LITTLE HOPE OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN VIETNAM IMPROVING MORE THAN MARGINALLY DURING THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND IT COULD DETERIORATE STILL FURTHER.

5. AS FAR AS THE ORDERLY DEPARTURE PROGRAMME IS CONCERNED, THE VIETNAMESE SEEM TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN ACHIEVING A BROAD COMPLETION OF THE PROGRAMME. AFTER THREE YEARS, WE HAVE ONLY SUCCEEDED IN SECURING REUNIFICATION FOR ABOUT 25 PERCENT OF ALL OUR CASES. GENERALLY, THE VIETNAMESE SEEM TO BE GIVING GREATER PRIORITY TO LARGER PROGRAMME COUNTRIES (US, CANADA, FRANCE, AUSTRALIA) THAN TO SMALLER PROGRAMME COUNTRIES (MOST WEST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES). BUT THE GENERALLY SLOW PACE OF THE ODP, THE SEEMING UNWILLINGNESS OF UNHCR TO PUT ANY REAL PRESSURE ON THE VIETNAMESE, AND THE GROWING DESPAIR OF THOSE WAITING IN THE SOUTH LEAD ME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE ODP IS NOT INHIBITING ILLEGAL DEPARTURES TO ANY SIGNIFICANT EXTENT. THERE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE WHO SIMPLY DO NOT QUALIFY UNDER THE ODP AND FOR WHOM ILLEGAL DEPARTURES ARE THE ONLY WAY OUT.