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GRS 150
RESTRICTED
FROM BANGKOK Ø201ØØZ JUNE 82
TO PRIORITY HONG KONG
TEL NO 042 OF 2 JUNE 82
RESTRICTED
INFO PRIORITY FCO LONDON
INFO SAVING KUALA LUMPUR, JAKARTA, SINGAPORE
FOR DEPUTY POLITICAL ADVISER
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TOP COPY COPY
HICHT 243/1
RECEIVED DOORY NO. 51 - 3 JUN 82
DESK OPPPLER
REGIS HY
INDEX
PA
Action
No
LGE,
316
AP316
YOUR TELNO 18 TO SINGAPORE (NOT TO FCO): VIETNAMESE REFUGEES. 1. ARRIVALS OF VIETNAMESE BOAT REFUGEES FOR THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 1982 ARE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EVERY SINGLE MONTH, AND OVERALL BY OVER 60% (A TOTAL OF 3642 IN COMPARISON WITH 9585). FULL FIGURES FOR MAY NOT YET AVAILABLE BUT UNHCR'S HALF-MONTH REPORT RECORDS ONLY 276.
2. AS SEEN FROM HERE, THE DROP IN NUMBERS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A A MIXTURE OF CAUSES, INCLUDING NEWS SPREADING WITHIN VIETNAM OF THE ''THAI HUMANE DETERRENT'', PUBLICITY ABOUT INCREASINGLY RESTRICTIVE RESETTLEMENT POLICIES AND FEAR OF PIRATE ATTACKS. CONDITIONS IN VIETNAM WILL INEVITABLY REMAIN THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN ANY DECISION TO ESCAPE. IF THESE DO NOT WORSEN, WE BELIEVE THE 1982 FIGURES COULD MARK THE BEGINNING OF A STEADY DOWNWARD
TREND FOR ARRIVALS IN THAILAND.
STAPLES
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SEAD
UND
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NEWS D
MR DONALD
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