TNAG-1180-FCO40-1482-Resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-into-the--1982 — Page 2

2305

Kong with

the success of the 1979 arrangements in Hong Kong. However, the UK quota of 11,000 is now exhausted, with no prospect of a fresh one, and decisions taken by the UK/Government have resulted in reduced quotas, and markedly tighter criteria . governing eligibility for them. The Australian Government has also adopted more restrictive criteria and the Canadian quota has been reduced to about 1,000 for 1982. The UNHCR has not so far been able to find further resettlement places in these or in other countries.

4

There is a growing conviction in resettlement countries that those leaving Vietnam are no longer fleeing persecution, as they were in 1979, but are seeking a more attractive life elsewhere. So far UNHCR continues to categorise such persons as refugees under the 1951 Convention. However, despite this, commentators refer increasingly to the "pull factor" of resettlement overseas as the main motive for the outflow, rather than the "push factor" of harsh treatment at home. Recent refugees arriving in Hong Kong have confirmed this view; many have indicated that they would not have set out from Vietnam had they realised that resettlement was no longer assured.

5

Opinion in the US, in particular, has grown increasingly unreceptive to South-east Asian refugees since 1979; and the US Government now supports policies of "humane deterrence" designed to discourage people from leaving Vietnam in the first place. To this end, the limit on admissions of South-east Asian refugees for the year October 1981 - 82 has been reduced to 100,000 (against an intake of 120,000 in 1980/81) and the criteria governing eligibility for resettlement in the US have been tightened, to exclude all but those with close links with the US. Although representations about these new restrictions have been made to the US authorities they have not been successful. On the basis of an assessment made with US refugee officials, it is estimated that only about 20% of future arrivals may be eligible for resettlement in America.

6

Because resettlement opportunities in other countries are so few, those ineligible for the US face a virtually indefinite wait in Hong Kong. With a backlog of cases approved for the US still waiting to go, the Vietnamese refugee population is likely to rise to about 10,500 by the end of May. Arrivals in April were less than in April 1981, but only some unexpected sustained reduction in the flow of arrivals can prevent the refugee population from rising again in future. The majority of new arrivals, ineligible for resettlement, will thus add to the hardcore of difficult cases who, in spite of the large-scale resettlement of 1979 to 1981, became ineligible for any resettle- ment programmes for a variety of largely administrative reasons. Most of this group of 6,000 or so have been in Hong Kong for over two and a half years.

G.S. 166

CONFIDENTIAL