the object should be to improve services between Hong Kong and Peking by allowing increased services for CAAC and a degree of unblinding for BA; and to improve services to Shanghai, the object should be to agree additional capacity for CAAC and CPA in accordance with the present 2:1 formula. By this means CAAC would no longer need to bend flights over Tianjin and Nanjing. But the consultations are most unlikely to succeed unless the negotiator has authority to take effective steps to curtail the Tianjin services (or to give notice of termination of the RR CMU if that's the longer term objective adopted). One result of his exercising such authority could be a confron- tation with CAAC at Kai Tak.
20
If Hong Kong is not prepared to face a confrontation at some stage (either as a consequence of terminating the RR CMU or of curtailing the Tianjin flights) then, even if DoT would agree to negotiate at all without the backing of possible sanctions, the consultations are likely to fail. Hong Kong's obvious impotence could be damaging in other areas. It might thus be better to go for option (d) and allow matters to drift along as they are, at least for the time being.
Public reaction
21
Because of the sensitivity of the issues involved, the normal procedures for determining the likely public reaction have not been followed. Whichever courses of action are eventually adopted, the reaction is likely to be mixed.
22
If the decision is to do nothing in respect of the CMU for the time being, then complaints about the poor quality of the services with China are likely to continue. If the decision is to terminate and particularly if there is even- tually confrontation with CAAC at Kai Tak, then there is likely to be an adverse reaction from those wishing to travel to and from China (although other forms of transport will still be available). There is also likely to be criticism in the con- text of the broader political issues.
23
On the Tianjin flights, if no action is taken, the public are unlikely to realise the extent to which CAAC is bending the rules by flying on to Peking. If the decisión is to reduce the flights and to consult, then a reaction similar to that described in the preceding paragraph is likely, with the added disadvantage that the CAAC's illegalities are unlikely to be understood.
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