TNAG-1173-FCO40-1465-Future-of-Hong-Kong-special-study-by-FCO-for-the-Prime-Minis-1982 — Page 37

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permit virtual Taiwan autonomy and continuing capitalism,

is a significant step for a ruling Communist party.

4.

To take any steps which would make reunification

significantly more remote would be regarded in China as national

betrayal. It is doubtful that any leader would risk trying

this or would survive if he did.

5.

If the problem of Hong Kong is to be tackled before

that of Taiwan (and no serious outside observer expects

reunification with the latter before 1997) then it is essential

that the solution to the former does not diminish the prospects

for the latter. This (and other factors) mean that solutions

such as independence for Hong Kong, self-determination (to

continue as a Colony) or renewal of the present form of lease

are excluded. The PRC have indicated that their new constitutional

provisions for Special Administrative Regions, clearly aimed to

accommodate Taiwan, are also applicable to Hong Kong and Macao.

The essential common factor is the recovery of sovereighty.

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