TNAG-1173-FCO40-1465-Future-of-Hong-Kong-special-study-by-FCO-for-the-Prime-Minis-1982 — Page 102

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PART II

Strengths and Weaknesses in the British and Chinese Positions

14. In practical terms the existing colony is indivisible and

is so regarded by the PRC. The New Territories comprise more

than half the population and 92% of the land area of the

territory; they include the airport, the container port, all

major reservoirs, new towns, most of industry and most of

the generating capacity. If the New Territories alone reverted

to Chinese rule in 1997, the two ceded areas over which the UK

has sovereignty would be unviable as a separate UK dependency

since their economic life depends on free movement between

the island of Hong Kong and the mainland part of the territory

and free access to the commercial and economic resources of

that part. It is very doubtful whether the UK could govern

the ceded areas as a separate entity at all after 1997.

We would certainly do so only on Chinese sufferance and then

only with a remote prospect of economic success: if the PRC

withheld their cooperation and applied hostile pressure, the

position of the UK in the ceded areas would be completely

untenable.

15. We could expect no significant international support

if we sought, now or in the future, to maintain our sovereignty

over the ceded areas against Chinese opposition. Nevertheless,

our legal title gives some leverage with the Chinese in

securing continued British administration over the whole

territory: if we are not prepared to relinquish our title

in international law voluntarily, we could only be deprived

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