TNAG-1167-FCO40-1447-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 46

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

COME IDENTIAL

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16.

There were signs of cracks

Mr Rajaratnam then elaborated at some length on the theme

that the Soviet Union was the common enemy and the long term

threat to the region. It was not so much a threat from

Marxist ideology as imperialism.

within, but there was a need to inflict a defeat on the Soviets

in one of their external adventures. They were now spinning

so many plates that sooner or later one would have to fall.

The more difficulties the Russians were in round the world the

more the internal contradictions would become apparent.

17. Lord Carrington agreed that in global terms the Soviet

Union was in trouble economically as well as politically.

The real problem was in Poland where, so far, things were going

f

quite well for them.

their own revolution.

They had persuaded the Poles to put down

If the Poles kept the lid on then the

Soviets would have a victory but if the Poles refused to accept

martial law then the Soviets might intervene which would provoke

a major breakdown in East/West relations and an arms race which

the West would win. Mr Fall commented that relatively little

was known about some of the younger members of the Politburo

who might rise to positions of power on Brezhnev's death.

There was a risk that a new generation might take a more hard

line view. Lord Carrington

believed that the Soviets would

Redacted under FOI exemption sections 27 (1), (2)

CONFIDENTIAL

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