COME IDENTIAL
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16.
There were signs of cracks
Mr Rajaratnam then elaborated at some length on the theme
that the Soviet Union was the common enemy and the long term
threat to the region. It was not so much a threat from
Marxist ideology as imperialism.
within, but there was a need to inflict a defeat on the Soviets
in one of their external adventures. They were now spinning
so many plates that sooner or later one would have to fall.
The more difficulties the Russians were in round the world the
more the internal contradictions would become apparent.
17. Lord Carrington agreed that in global terms the Soviet
Union was in trouble economically as well as politically.
The real problem was in Poland where, so far, things were going
f
quite well for them.
their own revolution.
They had persuaded the Poles to put down
If the Poles kept the lid on then the
Soviets would have a victory but if the Poles refused to accept
martial law then the Soviets might intervene which would provoke
a major breakdown in East/West relations and an arms race which
the West would win. Mr Fall commented that relatively little
was known about some of the younger members of the Politburo
who might rise to positions of power on Brezhnev's death.
There was a risk that a new generation might take a more hard
line view. Lord Carrington
believed that the Soviets would
Redacted under FOI exemption sections 27 (1), (2)
CONFIDENTIAL
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