TNAG-1155-FCO40-1435-Visits-by-Members-of-Parliament-(MPs)-to-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 323

CONFIDENTIAL

attitude has been disrupted by a number of factors:

DSR 11C

:

a)

Doubts about the reliability of the US

guarantee post Vietnam and President Carter. The

present US Administration has however gone someway

to reassuring the Japanese that the Americans are

reliable partners.

b)

Increased perception of the Soviet military

threat. Soviet naval presence in the Pacific and

Indian Oceans are considered a threat to Japanese

te vins mirtinal

oil/imports from the Middle East and elsewhere.

Japanese relations with the USSR are not particularly

good, especially as the Soviet Union occupy the

Muvile

Kumbe Islands and has

no intention of giving them

up (Soviet commentators even compare these Islands

to the Falkland Islands!).

c)

A close relationship with China which resulted

in the signing of a Treaty on Friendship and Coopera-

tion in 1978 and an awareness that Japanese interests

in South East Asia have increased over the past

decade with substantial aid to Asean countries.

(The old hatred of the 'Japanese coprosperity

sphere' still lingers on in many minds in that part

of the world and the Japanese therefore need to

move slowly.)

d)

Japanese defence equipment is not of the

highest standard. There is therefore some pressure

amongst the military hierarchy to have more money