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population and stages of economic development, ASEAN is unlikely to develop a high degree of intra-regional economic cooperation but the member states have made progress in harmonising their positions in external economic negotiations.
5.
ASEAN is likely to remain broadly Western orientated and resistant to Communist influence. Although they would not say so publicly, the ASEAN countries regard the US bases in the Philippines and treaty obligations to Thailand and the Philippines as a necessary reassurance in the face of growing Soviet involvement in the region. They also appear to welcome Australia's renewed interest in the security of the region. The Soviet Union and China are both regarded warily by ASEAN states because of the Soviet Union's support for Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia and growing naval presence in the area and China's refusal to withdraw moral support from the South East Asian communist parties. ASEAN at present enjoys something like a Chinese guarantee since China has made it clear that it would stand with Thailand in the event of a Vietnamese invasion. But although ASEAN and Chinese interests over Cambodia have temporarily converged, the underlying differences in their objectives would come to the fore if any real prospect arose of a Vietnamese withdrawal from Cambodia.
Cambodia/Vietnam
6.
The stalemate continues, with the Vietnamese maintaining their military advantage and ASEAN consolidating their diplomatic advantage. Neither side shows any sign of a weakening of resolve. But ASEAN continue to discount a military solution and remain eager for compromise; Vietnam apparently not - or not yet. All the same, there has been some slight movement. The Vietnamese have felt it necessary to adopt a more conciliatory tone and have hinted (privately to the French) that they might be willing to contemplate UN-supervised elections in Cambodia. The formation of a 'free Cambodian' coalition under Prince Sihanouk has for the first time presented a conceivable alternative to the otherwise stark choice (for Cambodians) between Vietnamese occupation or the return of Pol Pot. And speculation about a possible thaw between Peking and Moscow, if it continues, is likely to provoke some rethinking of tactics, if not objectives, in both Hanoi and ASEAN capitals.
EC/ASEAN relations
7.
The EC/ASEAN dialogue is important as a sign of ASEAN eagerness tomaintain close relations with the West despite US withdrawal from the region. The EC/ASEAN political relationship, embodied in regular Ministerial meetings, has so far been useful by enabling the Ten to demonstrate their support for ASEAN over Cambodia and ASEAN to support the Ten over Afghanistan. But the economic arrangements have been less satisfactory. The dilemma we face in dealing with ASEAN is that we are unable to give much substance to our professions of political support by a more forthcoming attitude on
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