CONFIDENTIAL
6
only way the Russians could be forced to retire would be if the Vietnamese ordered them out of Cam Ranh Bay, Danang and Kompong Som. On the face of it this seems a remote possibility.
15. The Soviet presence in S E Asia has therefore become a fact
of life for the foreseeable future. It has already been greeted with great suspicion in Beijing and this suspicion is likely to increase as Chinese maritime power grows and as unresolved disputes (eg the Paracels and Spratlys, territorial waters, economic zones) continue to fester. For these reasons, if for no other, the Sino- Soviet struggle for influence in S E Asia is likely to grow.
NOVEMBER 1982
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CONFIDENTIAL
ASIAN REGION
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
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