TNAG-1142-FCO40-1422-Hong-Kong-and-the-Falkland-Islands-crisis-1982 — Page 127

CONFIDENTIAL

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Mr Clift, HKGD

No

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FALKLANDS CRISIS: WIDER IMPLICATIONS

cc PS/PUS

Mr Donald Mr Goodison Head of EESD

See 14

I have been considering whether the time has come to write a paper with this title, as suggested in a minute of 6 April by Mr Bullard (not to all). But I do not think it possible yet to write anything helpful about such wide issues as the impact of the crisis on Britain's world reputation, Non Anglo/US relations or on the non-aligned movement.

The impact on these and similar matters will depend crucially on whether the present crisis ends peacefully or in conflict.

17

2. Various implications of the Falkland crisis

crisis are already under consideration, including those in the intelligence field, those concerning Gibraltar and those concerning Israeli foreign policy. There are, however, two points which perhaps need early attention. The first is the question whether there are any implications at all for China's attitude to Hong Kong, or, for that matter, for confidence within Hong Kong itself. I should be interested in your views. The other point is that Poland and Afghanistan have been driven on to the back pages of the press by the present crisis. I suggest that we should bear in mind the need for an early speech by Mr Pym to be about East/West Relations.

3.

When the prospects in the Falklands crisis are clearer, I will revert to the idea of a wider paper about implications.

Соожсо

CLG Mallaby

Planning Staff

12 April 1982

CONFIDENTIAL