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people of Hong Kong will be paramount in any decision on its future, whether the UK would be prepared to accept Hong Kong BDTCs in the UK in an emergency, etc. The unhelpful attention focussed on Hong Kong by the Falklands dispute will almost certainly be sustained as the Prime Minister's visit to China and Hong Kong in September draws nearer.
see (3) +
3
4. The Department have drawn up with assistance from Sir Edward Youde and myself a set of questions and answers which might be deployed either in answer to the press or for dealing with Parliamentary Questions. These are being sent to Hong Kong and Peking for urgent comments. There is also to be a meeting on 12 May between the retiring and new Governors of Hong Kong and Mrs Thatcher in preparation for her visit in the autumn. The outcome of the present crisis will undoubtedly influence the cast of mind of the Prime Minister in thinking about the future of Hong Kong, though again I am sure we shall be doing our best to explain that the two situations are quite different.
5.
The Chinese will be following closely how we handle the Falklands affair but in view of the point made in paragraph 2 above, I doubt if the result will significantly affect their views on how to deal with the future of Hong Kong. To my mind the real problem (rather as in the case of the Falkland Islands) will arise with the inhabitants of the territory and all the speculation and rumour which will grow in Hong Kong. If we are successful in recovering possession of and asserting our sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, I should imagine that this would add weight to our repeated statements that HMG stands by its commitment to Hong Kong. If we are unsuccessful, it will undoubtedly complicate our dealings with the Unofficial Members of the Hong Kong Government but I would hope that Hong Kong's inherent economic strength would sustain confidence even if things went wrong over the Falklands.
15 April 1982
Artmald
A E Donald
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