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31.
In the longer term, if the settlement figure is brought down permanently to 75 a day (or even a somewhat higher figure) and the concept of genuine short visits
to Hong Kong appears to be accepted by residents of China, then we could propose to the Chinese authorities some gradual increase in the number of visitors.
Possible Variations
32.
Some variations to the scheme are possible:-
(i)
(ii)
we could confine our action simply to denying identity cards to visitors and not attempt to track down overstayers. Instead, we would detain and return those whose presence came to light as a result of Police checks, contacts with Govern- ment Departments etc., This would much reduce the Immigration staff requirement as described in para 20 but unless denial of identity cards resulted in visitors returning to China voluntarily or deciding not to come here in the first place, it could greatly enlarge the existing illegal substratum of evaders, with all the adverse consequences associated with crime, blackmail and exploitation. It is difficult to forecast the deterrent effect of denying identity cards. It might be greater than expected, especially if the new policy is thoroughly publicised. But it seems prudent to assume that a fair number would overstay and that visitors would continue to come; if these turn out to be considerably fewer than 75 a day then the enforcement arrangements could be adjusted;
a further variation on (i) would be to withhold identity cards but legislate for overstayers nevertheless to remain in Hong Kong. This would be much the same as (iii) below, with similar arguments for and against;
/(iii)
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