TNAG-1081-FCO40-1331-Implications-for-Hong-Kong-of-changes-in-the-British-nationa-1981 — Page 197

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5. TO TRY TO GIVE AN ESTIMATE OF NUMBERS WITHOUT KNOWING THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH APPLICATIONS MAY BE MADE PRESENTS OBVIOUS DIFFICULTIES. BUT OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT AS OF NOW THERE COULD BE SAY 12,000 OFFICIALS AND UNOFFICIALS IN HONG KONG (INCLUDING A SMALL NUMBER WHO HAVE RETIRED WITHIN THE LAST TWO YEARS, BUT EXCLUDING THOSE WHO ARE U.K. BELONGERS ALREADY) WHO WOULD QUALIFY BY REASON OF BEING PARTICULARLY AT RISK. WITH THEIR IMMEDIATE FAMILIES THIS WOULD PUT THE FIGURE AT SAY 40,000 PEOPLE IN TOTAL IF ALL APPLIED (AND IF CIRCUMSTANCES ALLOWED THEM TO DO SO). IN BRIEFING SIR ANTHONY ON THIS QUESTION YOU SHOULD ALSO DRAW ON PARAGRAPH 4 OF MY TELNO 160 OF 18 FEBRUARY TO YOUDE (FCO).

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6. THIS ANSWERS THE QUESTIONS YOU HAVE POSED. HOWEVER SNCE ROYLE LEFT, AND AS EXPLAINED IN TELECON FORD-DAVIES EXCO UNOFFICIALS HAVE RAISED MAJOR OBJECTION TO THE BILL AND MAY WELL URGE MORE VIGOROUS TO IT AND WIDER AMENDMENTS. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ON TUESDAY.

MACLEHOSE

MINIMAL

HK&GD

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COPIES TO:-

HONG KONG GOVT.OFFICE LONDON

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