TNAG-1073-FCO40-1323-Policy-of-the-Government-of-Hong-Kong-on-education-including-1981 — Page 328

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some would obtain places on part-time courses.

On economic demand

6.10

The 1977 Working Party noted with reservations the findings of

the Hong Kong Training Council (HKTC) in its third series of manpower

surveys (together with those of the survey carried out by the Ad Hoc

Committee on Training in Commerce and the Services), which indicated

that the then planned output from the tertiary level institutions was

more than sufficient to meet anticipated demand (as assessed by the

HKTC itself) and, moreover, that there was a danger of overproduction.

The 1979 Working Group took into account both the views of the Advisory

Committee on Diversification (in its Report, November 1979) and the

findings of the fourth (and in some cases the fifth) series of HKTC

manpower surveys and concluded that rather than an anticipated over-

provision of places by 1982, there was now likely to be an overall

shortfall of approximately 25 per cent (but mainly at the craft level).

The uncertainties inherent in manpower prediction were noted, the 1979

Working Group believing that it would be unwise to base decisions about

the development of tertiary education on such predictions in their present

form.

6.11

The 1979 Working Group concluded that the following assumptions

of the 1977 Working Party on the education and training appropriate to

each of the functional levels of the working population might now need

to be reconsidered

viz:

Technologist and technician (12 per cent of labour force)

further education at post-Form V level.

Craftsmen (26 per cent) further education at post-Form III

level.

Operative and unskilled (62 per cent) general education

up to Form III, followed by on-the-job training.