TNAG-1073-FCO40-1323-Policy-of-the-Government-of-Hong-Kong-on-education-including-1981 — Page 26

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Assessment of Demand for Primary Education in the Government and Aided Sector

3.14

Since primary education is compulsory once a child has attained the age of six and since the period of compulsion extends well past the normal age of leaving primary school, the theoretical demand for primary education is given by the population prediction statistics for the appropriate age group and these are given in Appendix 3D.

3.15

However, the effective demand is modified by two opposing factors, the additional time spent in primary schools as a result of repetition which adds to the demand, and the number of children remaining in the private sector which reduces the demand.

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3.16

At present, the additional percentage due to repetition is probably about 5% while the percentage in the private sector is about 13% but with the implementation of reduced repetition rates and control of entry and movement proposed in Chapter 7, the former should reduce to between 1 to 2% while the effect on the number of children in the private sector is not predictable.

3.17

It follows that, assuming no change in the pattern of private sector education, the effective demand will be reduced from 91% of the theoretical demand, to about 88% once the proposals in this paper take full effect.

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