TNAG-1069-FCO40-1319-Resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-in-the-UK-1981 — Page 33

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say, 8,000 or so who could arrive here during next year. We have to be morbidly realistic and assume that, from next April onwards, our refugee population is likely to grow steadily again.

4.

The size of the US quota for 1982 is, therefore, a matter of particular importance for Hong Kong. The details were confirmed to us by Shepard Lowman, the senior State Department Official responsible for refugees, who visited Hong Kong recently. At first sight, the figure of 100,000 for South East Asia in FY 1982 (compared with an off-take in the past year of about 125,000) is better than earlier seemed likely. But the selection criteria are going to

be very much stricter.

In the case of Hong Kong alone in the region those without ties in the United States (Category 4E refugees as defined by the Americans) will be excluded from eligibility from 4th December next. This category accounts

for over 40% of the cases the Americans now process here. So their exclusion will have a serious effect on the off-take and we are asking the US Consulate General why Hong Kong has been singled out in this way.

Moreover, as we have already reported in our telegram 922 of 13th October, the drastic cut back in departures in October-December discriminated sharply and unfairly against Hong Kong. It also has given rise to frustration and problems of maintaining law and order in our camps.

6.

Lowman's visit, in addition to explaining how the restrictive criteria would be applied, was also designed to sound us out about ways in which Hong Kong might contribute to a co-ordinated policy of "humane deterrence", a subject he dealt with at length in his statement before the Sub-Committee of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

7.

We have tried to summarise our position and prospects in realistic arithmetic terms in Annexes (1) and (2). The main points are as follows:

(a) we already have perhaps 6,000 refugees here.

who, because of convictions here or other reasons not the fault of the Hong Kong Administration - have apparently ruled themselves out of anyone's programme (see lines (5) and (6) of Annex (1)); (b) effectively we can rely only on the US to make any

real dent in the bulk of the remainder of our refugee population, with a small contribution from Canada and Australia (see line (4) of Annex (2));

(c) but, unless we can get a modification of the

United States' recent decision on Category 4E refugees, we shall face a substantial increase in our "difficult" caseload - see lines (5) and (6) of Annex (1) because of new arrivals who neither they nor the Australians will take anyway;

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