TNAG-1062-FCO40-1312-Replacement-airport-for-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 24

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This document summarizes joint studies by the Civil Aviation Department (CAD) and the Consultants to develop a pilot concept for a replacement airport for Hong Kong. The goal of these studies, performed between March and December 1979, is to provide criteria to the Hong Kong Government to assist the decision- making process as to a replacement airport implementation programme.

CAD forecasts made in 1964 first highlighted the problem that would occur at Kai Tak Airport during the 1980s. In the latter part of the 1960s and early 1970s, the dynamic growth of air traffic produced a consensus of opinion by the aviation community that the demand for air transportation would grow indefinitely and virtually without constraint. This very optimism warranted a cautious reaction in reviewing the indications presented by the forecasts, and so a "wait and see" attitude prevailed. In 1971, the CAD again produced a series of forecasts emphasizing the probability that Kai Tak's useful life would reach an end in the mid-1980s. Based on these 1971 forecasts, the CAD engaged the Consultants to undertake a comprehensive study of the options available to satisfy Hong Kong's air transport requirements.

The objectives of this long-term consultancy were broad and comprehensive. In addition to researching the options for improving the traffic-handling capability at Kai Tak and examining options for a replacement airport, the studies included a feasibility investigation of artificially constraining air traffic growth, and an assess- ment of the economic value of the air transport system to Hong Kong.

The results of the long-term studies were published in January 1975, and an executive summary was completed in March 1975. The unique characteristics of the study keynoted the findings, i.e., a detailed evaluation of the total air transport system worth. The Consultants were convinced that failure to provide for most of the projected air traffic growth would be very serious to the economic health of Hong Kong and urged that the Director of Civil Aviation recommend to Government that a replacement airport was essential to the well-being of the colony. Moreover, in the Consultants' view, delay in providing a new airport would result in progressive economic penal- ties to Hong Kong (the current study concludes that about 5 years of these penalties are now unavoidable).

This recommendation was based on a thorough assess- ment of all options available for expansion of Kai Tak, none of which produced a significant increase in traffic- handling capability in the long term. A search for alternative sites for the airport facilities yielded one site

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