TNAG-1060-FCO40-1310-Mass-Transit-Railway-in-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 105

GF 323

CONFIDENTIAL

機密

XCC(80)137

Page 17 & tag

between the Government and Hong Kong Tramways Limited to ensure an appropriate role for the trams in the Corridor. Whilst possible under- estimates of bus and tram capacity would, of themselves, argue for delaying the completion of the Island Line, the TAC considered that the estimate's of demand for public transport facilities in the Corridor were 'conservative to a degree that could offset any under-estimates of bus and tram capacity.

(9) Implications for the Economy

40

The main implications for the economy of the proposed transport plans for the Corridor in terms of resources absorbed arise from the proposal to build the Island Line (apart from the resources it has already been decided to commit to the Island Eastern Corridor Road)! Constructing the Island Line would involve committing a substantial amount of resources over a number of years with no possibility of rephasing once the project 0 had started. Table 5 shows the proposed timing of the direct construction costs of the railway over its construction period.

A

Table 5: Phasing of Construction Costs

of the Island Line

Year

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

($ Million, at 1980 prices)

261

1,048

1,309

1,309

786

5 25

5, 238

41

.

:

The resources which would be absorbed by the project are basically of two types - those used by the building and construction industry (both domestically available and imported), and those directly imported. Of the construction costs of the railway, the larger share (approximately 66% each year) would be for civil engineering and the balance would be for electrical and mechanical engineering. The project would not threaten to pre-empt, even at its peak, an excessively large proportion of the resources available in either sector. The Island Line would be unlikely to absorb more than 6% to 7% of the labour resources employed in the building and construction industry, compared with 12% absorbed by the MIS during its peak construction period. Further, within the civil engineering component, most of the work would require the specialised skills and labour required for tunnelling and building deep foundations, rather than more conventional civil engineering resources, and these might by then be available for employment on the Island Line as a result of the completion of similar work on the TWE. As regard's the effect on the visible balance of trade, this would be negligible as the import bill attributable to the project would barely exceed 1% of total imports of goods, even in the peak year.

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