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between the New Territories and the rest of Hong Kong which is held
in perpetuity. But, in practical terms, the whole territory is now
The Lease problem therefore affects the future of the
indivisible.
whole of Hong Kong.
5. So far attempts to get the Chinese to focus on this, including
specific suggestion for an interim solution made in 1979, have failed.
For the Chinese leadership, doing anything to prolong British
administration is a political minefield. They are happy with the
present position by which Britain administers Hong Kong and China.
gains great economic benefit from it. But they have made it clear
that they are in no hurry to deal with the problem of the future.
They believe that their general assurances to investors to 'put their
hearts at ease' are sufficient. This is not so; unless uncertainty over
the Governor's powers after 1997 is removed, confidence will fade,
perhaps quite soon. Moreover, administration will become increasingly
difficult as the time shortens within which the Government can legally
act.
6.
When the Chinese are prepared to discuss the future, the analogy
with their policy towards Taiwan suggests that they might concede a
wide degree of autonomy if their sovereignty over the Territory was
recognised. It is uncertain whether the Chinese would be able to
accept a form of autonomy including formal agreement to continuing
British administration after 1997. But we need to edge them in this
direction because the Hong Kong population and investors in the
Territory would regard anything less as insufficient reassurance.
(Recent Chinese history gives no encouragement that a Chinese
administration would provide the economic and political framework
within which Hong Kong could thrive.)
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/7. Prospects
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