TNAG-1041-FCO40-1291-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 55

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TO IMMEDIATE F C O

TEL NO 735 OF 9 DECEMBER

INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG (FOR GOVERNOR):

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PERSONAL FOR CLIFT FROM AMB ASSADOR

YOUR TELEGRAMS 924 AND 925 AND HONG KONG TELEGRAMS 1398:

FUTURE OF HONG KONG

ACM 14/12/

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1. I AGREE WITH THE GOVERNOR THAT IN SEPTEMBER 1982 THE CHINESE LEADERS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREOCCUPIED WITH OTHER, AND FOR THEM MORE PRESSING, MATTERS. AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE, I DO NOT ASSESS THE CHANCES OF A FAVOURABLE RESPONSE, EVEN IF WE CAN FLOAT THE IDEA OF CESSION OF SOVEREIGNTY, AS HIGH.

2. BUT IF THE PRIME MINISTER COMES, WE CANNOT FAIL TO RAISE THIS, PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT AND PRESSING ITEM IN OUR BILATERAL RELATIONS, WITHOUT TOTAL LOSS OF CREDIBILITY. I THOUGHT THIS WAS AGREED DURING MY TALKS IN HONG KONG LAST WEEK AND WAS REFLECTED IN OUR COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT O.D. PAPER (HONG KONG TELEGRAM 1873). THE QUESTION THEREFORE BOILS DOWN TO HOW WE CAN MAXIMISE CHANCES OF PROGRESS FOR THE PRIME MINISTER. FOR THIS, NOTICE BY THE LPS IS NECESSARY. AGAIN, WE AGREED THIS A FEW DAYS AGO IN THE 0.0. PAPER.

3. I AGREE IN GENERAL WITH THE DRAFT IN PARA 3 OF HONG KONG TELEGRAM UNDER REFERENCE AND WITH THE PROPOSED ACTION IN PARA 4 OF THAT TELEGRAM. A PIECE OF PAPER WOULD BE VERY USEFUL. HOWEVER, THE BEST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM THIS VISIT WOULD BE CHINESE AGREEMENT TO STUDY THE POINTS WE MAKE. THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANCE OF A FORTHCOMING RESPONSE AT THIS STAGE, AND AN IMMEDIATE REBUFF CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. TO MINIMISE THIS RISK I SHOULD PREFER MR ATKINS TO SAY EXPLICITLY THAT HE IS NOT ASKING FOR A SUBSTANTIVE REPLY, AND TO PUT THE EMPHASIS ON DISCUSSIONS DURING THE PMS VISIT. THE LAST SENTENCE OF PAR A 3 OF HONG KONG TELNO 1998 COULD BE REDRAFTED TO READ: ''THE PRIME MINISTER WILL CERTAINLY HOPE TO MAKE PROGRESS ON THIS SUBJECT DURING HER VISIT, AND WE HOPE THAT OUR CHINESE FRIENDS WILL GIVE THOUGHT TO THE POINTS I HAVE MADE IN THE INTERVENING PERIOD. "

4. ALSO IN PARA 3 OF HONG KONG TUR I SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THE DRAFT SPEAKING NOTE SHOULD BE AMENDED TO READ

AND THIS IS LIKELY SOON TO AFFECT INVESTMENT''. THE REFERENCE IN LINE 20 OF THAT PARAGRAPH SHOULD ALSO BE AMENDED TO READ ''THIS SITUATION IS LIKELY TO LEAD ...''. THIS REFLECTS OUR ASSESSMENT IN THE BACKGROUND PAPER,

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