TNAG-1040-FCO40-1290-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 234

Mr Clift

SECRET

مل

1592

stion Telen

A

849.110017/7!

FUTURE OF HONG KONG: CONTINGENCY PAPER

1.

I agree that the next move is to let Sir P Cradock and Sir M MacLehose have a further chance to comment on this draft

paper.

2. Sir E Youde saw the paper in its latest form before his departure on sick leave. He has suggested that once we have had the further comments from Peking and Hong Kong a paper for OD should be prepared to which this paper can be attached as an annex. The paper should be held for the moment on the stocks until the time is ripe for it to be considered by Ministers.

3. There are various points of time at which it might be put before Ministers. For example, when we are planning to approach the Chinese to go firm on the invitation for Mrs Thatcher to visit China next September, it might be prudent to draw the problem of Hong Kong's future to her attention. I believe the Governor would think this a wise move, knowing that when she does go to Peking, she will be expected to come back with something better than a reiteration of ''put your hearts at ease''. The Prime Minister ought in fairness to be warned before she takes the final decision to go to Peking that this is one of the problems which will come her way. Another possible point of time might be at the time of any changing of the guard in 1982, assuming Sir Murray relinquishes the governorship next April.

4.

If the paper is not considered by Ministers at the time when we are going firm on the invitation for Mrs Thatcher, we should at least bear in mind that if the future of Hong Kong is to be discussed in Peking in September 1982, the Chinese will need to be put on notice and that will require a good three or four months before September 1982 for consideration by Ministers here.

5. These are thoughts which must be discussed with Far Eastern Department and ultimately with Sir M MacLehose and Sir P Cradock but for the moment the next step is clear, ie clearance with Peking and Hong Kong. I shall be glad to see the draft covering letters.

Artmard

A E Donald

18 August 1981

SECRET