TNAG-1040-FCO40-1290-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 160

Bulate

188.11

Mr Davies

SECRET

SKOVG

Reference.........

ник очо 040/

Rests

280C7931

三

FUTURE OF HONG KONG

1.

INE

اكين

an

Unilateral action out of the blue on the lines proposed by Mr Rushford without prior consultation with the Chinese would in my view annoy them considerably. They would want to know why " they were not consulted in view of the "excellent understanding" we have over Hong Kong; they could argue that by extending the unequal Treaties, even for ostensibly sensible reasons, we were being unnecessarily provocative; they might even allege that we were whipping up fears of a crisis in confidence as a pretext for taking action which would extend our control over Hong Kong beyond 1997, etc. Even if the more pragmatic and responsible elements of the Chinese leadership believed none of that, I think they might find it difficult not to take that line with us for internal political reasons.

2.

On the other hand, if we were to tell the Chinese that we had it in mind to take action on these lines, and if we were to explain in we detail what it would entail, this would certainly have the merit of getting them to focus more clearly on the problem. Provided we avoided the impression of pressurising them, they might even come round to see the advantages. In consulting them in advance, we would not explicitly be seeking their approval for the action proposed, but it should be clear that we would be guided by their reaction.

A.R.Pam

23 October 1981

A R Paul

CODE 18.77

SECRET