TNAG-1040-FCO40-1290-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 143

Reference...

HKK 040/1

SECRET

15.1.

Mr Williamson 5.11. Minute.

Mr Clift

HKR 040/1

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FUTURE OF HONG KONG : TACTICS

1.

&

1691

Mr Clift asked me to highlight the points on which Sir P Cradock has differed from Sir M MacLehose's views on tactics. The Governor's views are incorporated into his draft for the OD paper; the Ambassador's in his letter of 9 October and his Telno 644. I attach a resumé.

2.

20/3

(219)

My own views on these points are as follows:

See (224

a) The pace: While the Chinese may be slow to react to

events, their response will hinge on the attitudes of one man and perhaps the small coterie around him when he is ready, policy will change, but to force the pace now would only serve to irritate.

b) The Prime Minister's visit:

The start of the 15-year count-down next July may turn out to be a watershed in confidence; but I do not think it will come so soon. If there is no great stir by the autumn, I think too strong a play by the Prime Minister, broadcast in advance. by the LPS, will seem like scaremongering and fail. The likelihood of getting any more from the Chinese without tangible evidence of the consequences upon Hong Kong is in any case slim. I feel therefore that we should go for a modest level of reminders to the Chinese and that the Prime Minister should propose a joint study on the future without prior build-up and without frightening them with any list of difficult options. The options would arise in the course of the study: if they are drawn into discussion, then half the game is won.

c) Intermediaries:

The Chinese are well accustomed to the use of businessmen as intermediaries and I do not think they would take it amiss if we were seen to do the same. This is only fore-play, as the main draft paper suggests, to keep lines open with Peking.

d) Special emissary:

When confidence is sliding, secrecy will not be so vital. It may do little or no further harm if it were known that some, any, solution was being discussed.

Buluk

CODE 18-77

5 November 1981

SECRET

A W Friar

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