XCC(81)76
17
CONFIDENTIAL 機密
Page
Given the population forecasts produced by the Commissioner
of Census and Statistics, and allowing for current shortfalls in the provision of self-contained housing (as derived from memorandum XCC(80)115 Review of Housing Objectives), it is estimated that over the period 1981-1996 there could be a maximum potential housing need for about 3.1 million persons (700,000 households), broadly as follows:
Public Rental HOS and Private
Total
Housing
Housing
Persons
Persons
Persons
Potential Demand from
Population Growth
521
599
1, 120
1981-1996
Potential Demand
from Current
1, 243
718
1,961
Unfulfilled Needs
Total
1, 764
1,317
3,081
18
From an analysis of current development plans and programmes it is estimated that, by the turn of the century, there could be additional capacity for 3.1 million persons in the existing urban areas, in "first- generation' new towns, such as Sha Tin and Tuen Mun, and in "second- generation' new towns such as North Lantau and Junk Bay, as follows:
Public Rental
Housing
Private Housing
and Other
Total
1 Urban Area (HK Island
and New Kowloon)
000 persons
475
386
861
2 First Generation New
Towns (Tsuen Wan, Sha
Tin, Tuen Mun, Tai Po, Yuen Long, Fanling and Rural Townships)
775
838
1, 613
3 Second Generation New
Towns (North Lantau, Junk Bay, Tuen Mun E Extension)
390
400
790
4 Total
5 Potential Need
6 Surplus/Deficit
Capacity
G.S. 166
1, 640
1, 624
3,264
1,764
1,317
3,081
-124
+307
+183
(-7%)
(+6%)
(+23%)
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