Within this context, the aim should be to ensure, as far as possible, that expensive investment in major transport infrastructure should produce multiple development benefits. For example, if the airport is relocated on North Lantau, then an expenditure of about $5.7 billion would be incurred through the provision of a fixed crossing to the mainland and trunk roads. This, in turn, would enhance the development potential of North Lantau. If, at the same time, it were found feasible to provide a second container port on North Lantau the heavy front-ended investment in transport infrastructure required to serve the airport would also have a significant economic benefit in expanding the capacity of the port.
28
The same considerations apply to Tin Shui Wai which, with an ultimate population of 535,000 persons, would create transport needs of considerable magnitude, not only with regard to the town itself but also in respect of connections with other parts of the territory.
29
At present, the population of the North West New Territories (excluding Tuen Mun) is in the order of 216, 000 persons and has increased at about 5% per annum since 1976 as against 3.3% per annum for the period 1971-1976. The rate at which the population in the region may grow is subject to some conjecture, depending on general demographic trends, attraction of private investment, Government's public housing development programmes and rates of immigration from other areas. If the population were to increase generally at the same rate as for the period 1971-1981, (i.e. at about 4.0% per annum), then by 1991 the population of the North West New Territories could be in the order of 325,000 persons. The possibility of accelerated growth resulting from major new development schemes has yet to be determined in the context of strategic planning studies and, for the purposes of this paper, a 1991 population of about 325,000 persons is assumed. The developer's proposals for Tin Shui Wai envisage a first phase population of almost 150,000 persons by 1990/91. This would be a major threshold from a transport investment point of view.
30
For a 'base' 1991 population of approximately 3 25,000 persons for the North West New Territories it would be necessary to complete the current 5-year road improvement programme, together with a Yuen Long southern by pass, a dual, two-lane highway from Au Tau to Tai Po via Shek Kong and additional trunk road capacity between Yuen Long and Tuen Mun either by widening Castle Peak Road to a dual, three-lane highway or by a new parallel link. It would also be necessary to upgrade the level of public transport services by the provision of a light rail system (LRT) between Tsuen Wan and Tuen Mun, an extension of the proposed Tuen Mun tramway to Yuen Long, plus improved bus frequencies and capacities. The plan at Annex F illustrates the base transportation network that would need to be developed. This base network would need to be enhanced if additional population growth were to occur at Tin Shui Wai. If Phase 1 of the project
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