TNAG-1036-FCO40-1286-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 61

20B

GR 1070

DE DIP

SECRET

FM HONG KONG 0407562 FEB

SECRET

TO PRIORITY FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE

TELEGRAM NUMBER 115 OF 4 FEBRUARY, 1981

INFO PRIORITY PEKING.

20A

TOP COM

HKK 040/1

RECEIVED IN Asoväike

GD

Ha| HIS GO

16 FEBID!

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

see

35

MIPT:

мо

1. WE SHOULD DISTINGUISH BETWEEN 2 DEGRÉES BE

PART:

PA

214.2

REGISTRY Action Taken

CTIVITY ON OUR

AN

(A) DEGREE 1: AS AT PRESENT, THROUGH OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL

CHANNELS, EXPLAINING THE PROBLEM TO SENIOR CHINESE AS OPPORTUNITY

OFFERS AND WARNING THEM OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF NO SOLUTION:

(B) DEGREE 2: EITHER BECAUSE WE SEE EARLY DANGER OF A SLIDE IN CONFIDENCE, OR BECAUSE WE HAVE OBTAINED A HIGH LEVEL DIRECTIVE FOR A NEGOTIATION FROM THE CHINESE, OR BOTH, WE PASS TO MORE FORCEFUL PROCEDURES INSISTING ON POSITIVE RESULTS.

2. WE SHOULD BEWARE OF PASSING TO DEGREE 2 PREMATURELY, NOT SO MUCH BECAUSE A FURTHER REBUFF WOULD BE DANGEROUS (THOUGH IT WOULD BE) BUT BECAUSE IT WOULD DETRACT FROM THE CREDIBILITY OF A SUBSEQUENT ATTEMPT TO GET THINGS MOVING WHEN IT HAD BECOME ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.

3. AS I SEE IT, THE CHINESE WANT THE STATUS QUO TO DRIFT ON FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME AND AT ONE TIME BELIEVED THEY COULD ACHIEVE THIS BY THE GENERAL ASSURANCES THEY GAVE ME AND OTHERS. SINCE THEN THERE HAS PROBABLY BEEN SOME PROGRESS IN THOUGHT AMONGST SOME CHINESE OFFICIALS. BUT WE DO NOT KNOW TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, THEY NOW ACCEPT THAT THEIR ORIGINAL PLAN WILL NOT WORK UNLESS EITHER WE TAKE

LEGAL ACTION (E.G. OVER LEASES AND THE 1997 ORDER-IN-COUNCIL), OR UNLESS THEY AND WE MAKE JOINT NEW ARRANGEMENTS. CERTAINLY IN OFFICIAL CONTACTS THEY HAVE NOT BEEN PREPARED TO CONTEMPLATE FORMAL AMENDMENT OF PRESENT ARRANGEMENTS.

4. I DO NOT SEE WHY THEY SHOULD UNTIL EIGTHER:

(A) IMMINENCE OF COLLAPSE IN HONG KONG FORCES THEIR ATTENTION, AND INCIDENTALLY COVERS THEM POLITICALLY, OR

(B) THE LEADERSHIP ACCEPTS THE ADVANTAGE OF ACTING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A SLIDE IN CONFIDENCE AND FEELS ITSELF POLITICALLY

STRONG ENOUGH TO DO SO.

5. 4(A) IS INHERENTLY DANGEROUS TO US, AND ALSO TO THE CHINESE THOUGH THEY MAY NOT REALISE IT. THE MORE SERIOUS THE COLLAPSE THE MORE SPECIFIC THE ASSURANCES WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE GIVEN TO RETURN THE SITUATION TO NORMAL. SO, THOUGH (B) MAY BE IMPROBABLE IN PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES IT IS WORTH PROBING, AND I RECOMMEND THE S OF S SHOULD DO SO, PROVIDED, AND ONLY PROVIDED, HE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. (NOTE: RESPONSIBILITY FOR

SECRET

/MAJOR