TNAG-1036-FCO40-1286-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 35

3.

SECRET

SECOND, IT WOULD I THINK BE UNWISE AND IMPRACTICABLE TO TRY TO EXCLUDE THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

HUANG HUA,

NOW A VICE-PREMIER, WILL BE HOST IN APRIL AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE WILL DO ALMOST ALL HIS TALKING TO HIM. POLICY ON HONG KONG IS OF COURSE DECIDED ABOVE THE MFA LEVEL, BUT THEN SO IS POLICY ON MOST OTHER IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF CHINESE EXTERNAL AFFAIRS. THE MINISTRY REMAINS OUR MAIN CHANNEL OF COMMUNICATION WITH SENIOR LEADERS AND WOULD BE MOST UNLIKELY TO TALK WITHOUT AUTHORISATION FROM THEM. A DIRECTIVE FROM DENG, ISSUED IN OUR PRESENCE, WOULD OF COURSE BE IDEAL, BUT IT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY IN WHICH THINGS COULD MOVE FORWARD. BY ALL MEANS LET US ASK DENG, BUT WE SHOULD TRY TO CARRY HUANG HUA WITH US.

*

4. THIRD, THE QUESTION OF A ''REBUFF' IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SECRETARY OF STATE SUGGESTS AN EXCHANGE OF VIEWS ON HONG KONG THE CHINESE MAY SAY THAT THE TIME IS NOT YET RIPE. I AM NOT SURE THAT WE WOULD HAVE LOST MUCH BY SUCH AN APPROACH OR THAT OUR CREDIBILITY WOULD BE DIMINISHED WHEN A SLIDE BEGAN. RATHER THE REVERSE. ONE REASONABLE RESPONSE WOULD BE THAT TIME IS SHORT AND WE SHOULD USE IT TO CONSIDER TOGETHER ON A CONTINGENCY BASIS WHAT ACTION MIGHT BE TAKEN TO SUSTAIN CONFIDENCE WHEN THE SLIDE BEGINS. BUT IN ANY CASE WE HAVE TO MEASURE THE DANGER THAT THE CHINESE MAY SAY NO TO TALKS NOW AGAINST THE DANGER INHERENT IN THE OTHER COURSE, NAMELY THAT OF WAITING UNTIL THE LSLIDE BEFORE SEEKING TALKS.

CRADOCK

LIMITED

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