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3.
(iv)
Paras 16-19.
The Chinese would be unlikely to demand direct representation on either the Executive Council or the Legislative Council, although they could press for the appointment of known "friends". They would be more likely to attempt to move to a position in which they had greater de facto influence particularly with reference to a preference for Chinese trading arrangements and help for Chinese schools.
This would occur
in any case with the appointment of an official representative. It should be manageable,
although it would always be a potential point of friction depending on the state of Sino- British relations and the personality of the Chinese representative.
**
Long Term
6.
(a)
(b)
(c)
The following are comments on paras 20-28 of the paper.
General. Consideration needs to be given to the reactions of the local population to various forms of change. Very briefly I think it is correct to say that the great majority of the population would prefer things to remain as they are. Reaction to change would depend on (a) the extent of China's influence or control in the new form of administration and (b) the state of Chinese politics at the time. The less the extent of Chinese influence/control, and the longer that China itself had been following stable and pragmatic policies when the change occurred, the fewer the people who would press to leave. Nevertheless, any solution which gave China a dominant voice in the territory's affairs would cause a substantial number of people in sensitive government posts, and of the most prosperous members of the business community, to leave if they could. A similar, although less concentrated, move to leave would occur as a result of continued uncertainty about the long-term future.
Paras 21-25. The paper deals with problems for HMG in either maintaining or ending the Hong Kong connection. Something should be added on the positive advantages of staying. Apart from any direct benefit from exports to the territory (which will presumably be covered in the Annex) Hong Kong as British territory under British law provides a unique springboard for British business activity throughout East and South- East Asia. Although there is always a danger of this changing it is also, at present, a plus rather than a minus in the UK's relationship with China (cf para 22).
Para 21(a). Full representative government would be more accurate than "democracy".
L'
*
See also drafting amendments attached.
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/contd.
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