TNAG-1036-FCO40-1286-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1981 — Page 126

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DRAFT

SECRET

ANNEX C

HONG KONG

OPTIONS FOR A LONG-TERM SOLUTION

DSR 11C

a) Chinese Take-Over by Force or Threat of Force Before or

After 1997:

Prospects:

Remote. Even a return to radical Government

in Peking would not necessarily result in take-over

(cf 1967).

Implications for HMG: Not resistible. Would appear as

major political defeat. Probably our only option to

attempt to negotiate transition period (which would lead

to major immigration pressure on the United Kingdom).

b) Continuance of Status Quo beyond 1997 by public agreement

with Chinese

Prospects:

Doubtful. Would involve Chinese public endorse-

ment of continuing colonial rule (difficulties with Third

World, Soviet criticism and as precedent for Taiwan).

Implications for HMG: In our interests as maintaining

confidence in Hong Kong and staving off immigration

pressures.

Possible international and domestic criticism

of maintenance of colonial rule.

SECRET

Only postpones problem. Dd 0532000 400M 5/78 HMSO Bracknel!/C)