HORN OF AFRICA
CONFIDENTIAL
Ethiopia/Somalia
1.
The balance of advantage in the Horn is titled substantially towards Ethiopia. Somali forces have been largely forced out of the Ogaden and apart from recently renewed border skirmishes military activity has been at a relatively low level for some months. Eritrea similarly remains quiet. Dissidents there have expended their energy on interfactional disputes and may be receiving less help from Sudan.
2. Somalia has been isolated politically by Ethiopia and was badly discomforted by the OAU mediation committee's decision on the integrity of national frontiers. Arguing from a position of weakness, President Siad Barre recently proposed a peace plan to resolve the Ogaden dispute. This made several concessions, but was essentially designed to head off ratification by Heads of State at the Nairobi OAU Summit meeting of the mediation committee's findings. The ploy appears to have been unsuccessful and there seems little prospect of agreement being reached.
3. We regard the OAU as the body best suited to achieving a lasting solution to the dispute. Our policy is to support the Organisation's efforts to bring about a negotiated settlement on the basis of respect for territorial integrity to urge restraint on the parties concerned and to ensure that the serious refugee problems are handled in as humane a way as possible,
Kenya/Somalia
4.
Somalia's past attempts at rapprochement with Kenya have been unsuccessful, largely because of Kenyan suspicions and mistrust over its neighbour's irredentist policies. A meeting between Presidents Moi and Siad in June may however lead to a thaw. Our policy is to encourage the two countries in their efforts to achieve better
relations.
/Human Rights in Ethiopia
(52)
CONFIDENTIAL
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