The deterrent effect of the new measures, together with the activity of the Chinese Security Forces, resulted in a very sharp fall in November in the total number of arrests. The month's figure was 876 (average of 29 a day) as compared with 13,365 (446 a day) in September 1980 and 9, 248 (308 a day) in November 1979. Of those arrested in November 1980, 60 per cent came by sea, mostly from Haifeng County. There were few bay crossers (but this is also a seasonal feature). The numbers arriving by land also fell sharply - on most days under 10 were arrested.
6
How many evade arrest can only be gusssed at. On the past evasion ratio, i. e. 1: 0.6 (a re-calculated figure in the light of the special registration numbers) the total would be about 500. It is possible however that the pattern has changed and it might be more prudent to calculate the size of the new resident illegal group on the basis of 1: 1, which would mean about 900. They include at least some of the 86 handed over by the Police to Immigration Department. How they are living is so far a matter of speculation (though interviewing of those detected may throw some light on this): probably most are being sheltered by relatives for whom some of them may be working. Others may have taken jobs at low wages with unscrupulous employers. Yet virtually none has been detected in the special operations carried out by the Police and Labour Department in areas and establishments where their presence seemed most likely: the arrests the Police have made have arisen from random checks on the street by the Action Squads or Police Officers on other duties.
7
There is as yet no specific evidence of a forgery or counter- feiting racket getting underway. The number of replacement identity cards being applied for is about 1, 000 a day but half of these are in respect of damaged or defaced cards, which are of course surrendered. The figure of 500 cards lost daily can be compared with the figure in Singapore (with less than half of Hong Kong's population) of 300.
The Next Steps
8
It is obvious that persistent aggressive action is needed to detect the illegal stratum which is probably beginning to form, not only because of the criminal potential it may create but also to avoid any weakening of the deterrent. The following steps are planned
(1) Police
(a)
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Continued checking of identity documents by the Action Squads and, as a secondary function, by all officers on duty, with closer examination being given to the identity documents;
CONFIDENTIAL #B
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