TNAG-0983-FCO40-1202-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 62

SECRET

GROWING CONGESTION, THE STRAIN ON HOUSING AND OTHER SOCIAL SERVICES AND FEARS OF RECESSION AND UNEMPLOYMENT COMBINE TO MAKE ARRIVAL FROM CHINA BE PERCEIVED NOW AS A THREAT TO LIVING STANDARDS AND TO SOME EXTENT TO SECURITY. THIS HAS EMERGED CLEARLY FOLLOWING THE RECENT EXTENSION OF THE AREA IN WHICH IDENTITY CARDS MUST BE CARRIED (MY TELNO 1141). IN RESPONSE TO THIS THERE HAVE BEEN REPEATED QUESTIONS FROM THE PRESS AND PUBLIC AS TO WHY WE ADHERE TO THE REACHED BASE POLICY. THE GENERAL VIEW IS THAT THIS PROVIDES A STRONG INCENTIVE FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND THAT A REVERSAL OF THE POLICY WOULD CONSTITUTE A POWERFUL DETERRENT.

7. I SHARE THIS VIEW SUBJECT TO THE VITAL PROVISO THAT A CHANGE OF POLICY MUST BE, AND BE SEEN TO BE, SUCCESSFUL. IF ENFORCEMENT FAILS AND NUMEROUS EVADERS ARE ABLE TO LIVE A TOLERABLE EXISTENCE HERE, THE DETERRENT DISAPPEARS, WE ARE WORSE OFF THAN BEFORE AND PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IS UNDERMINED. HENCE THE NECESSITY FOR THE TWO KEY MEASURES IN THE PLAN: THE UNIVERSAL OBLIGATORY CARRYING OF PROOF OF IDENTITY, AND A BAN ON THE EMPLOYMENT OF PERSONS WITHOUT IDENTITY CARDS. IF THE WOULD-BE IMMIGRANT SEES NO CHANCE OF LEGITIMATE WORK OR ACCESS TO ANY PUBLIC SERVICES AND HE THINKS THE RISK OF BEING DETAINED IS HIGH, THE CHANCES OF HIS SETTING OFF AT ALL WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED.

8. THE REACTION OF THE PUBLIC TO THESE NEW CONTROLS IS ALSO NOT EASY TO ASSESS BUT I BELIEVE THAT, PROVIDED THE THREAT TO EMPLOYMENT AND LIVING STANDARDS REPRESENTED BY CONTINUING HIGH LEVELS OF IMMIGRATION IS EFFECTIVELY PUT ACROSS THEN THE MEASURES WILL BE ACCEPTED, ALBEIT WITH A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF GRUMBLING. I BELIEVE ALSO THAT THE GREAT MAJORITY OF EMPLOYERS IN HONG KONG WILL OBSERVE THE BAN. THERE IS BOUND TO BE THE UNSCRUPULOUS FRINGE (ESPECIALLY IN THE BUILDING INDUSTRY AND AMONGST SMALL MANUFACTUERERS) WHO WILL TRY TO EXPLOIT THE SITUATION BY TAKING ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AT WELL BELOW AVERAGE WAGES BUT POLICE AND OTHER GOVERNMENT ACTION WILL BE TAKEN TO CRACK DOWN ON THIS.

9. 1 THEREFORE CONCLUDE THAT, BARRING A MOST UNLIKELY CHANGE FOR THE BETTER, IMPLEMENTATION OF OUR CONTINGENCY PLANS WILL BE NECESSARY. I ALSO BELIEVE THAT GIVEN CHINESE CO-OPERATION, THE DETERRENT WILL WORK, AT ANY RATE INITIALLY. BUT TO MAINTAIN ITS EFFECTIVENESS WILL REQUIRE A LONG HARD SLOG BY BOTH OUR SECURITY FORCES AND THE CHINESE, AND OF COURSE ALSO BY OUR LABOUR DEPART- MENT AND INFORMATION SERVICES. TO KEEP ALL THIS GOING WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LIGHT OF EXPERIENCE.

2. SECRET

/10.