CONFIDENTIAL #
(1)
Appendix A
Evasion Ratios estimated by C & S Department
(2)
Current Estimates*
Previous Estimates**
No. of IIs No. of IIs
(direct
(From China from China) & Macao)
Month/Yr.
arrested
arrested
(3) Ratio A Ratio B Evader (1):(3) (2):(3)
(4)
Ratio A Ratio B
Evader
(1): (4) (2): (4) (1):(4) (2):(4)
Mar 80
4694
4814
Apr 80
5716
5806
5398 1:1.1 1:1.1
5640 1:1.0 1:1.0
5441
1:1.2 1:1.1
6379 1:1.1 1:1.1
May 80
8123
8205
7484 1:0.9 1:0.9
*
**
Estimates made in the current month based on up-to-date surfacing data
Estimates made in the last month based on surfacing data
available then.
The calculations of the estimate for May 1980 are as follows :-
2.
No. of IIs from China arrested
8123
Total No. of IIs arrested
8205
No. of IIs who registered/would register with ROP
in 1st month
4962
in 2nd month
1372*
in 3rd month
102*
after 3 months
300*
Estimated No. of IIs who would never register
748
Estimated total No. of successful IIs
7484
Evasion ratio A
1:0.9
Evasion ratio B
1:0.9
* Estimates
GF 323
CONFIDENTIAL ##
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